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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still