Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
