Amid the considerable disarray regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.
The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
A Shift in Global Role
A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.
He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.
Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.
Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers
No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.
Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.
